State of Rise 2026

Executive Strategy Brief — Synthesizing 12 Deep Analyses
Prepared February 25, 2026 · Rise Online Advertising

Current Annual Revenue

~$3M
~$250K MRR · 203 active clients · ~$1,230/client avg

2026 Target

$6M
Requires 2x growth · Path identified below
30%
Annual Churn Rate
79%
Leads Stuck in Pipeline
1.4 min
Median Speed-to-Lead
10%
Current Profit Margin

🔍 The Diagnosis — 7 Critical Findings

Across 12 analyses, these are the systemic issues preventing Rise from reaching $6M:

Critical #1 — The Pipeline Black Hole
10,608 leads (79%) stuck in NEW LEAD — 100% unassigned

Not a single stuck lead has a rep assigned. Median age: 381 days. 5,442 leads are over a year old. Rise is generating leads and letting them rot. At a conservative 1% recovery rate, that's 106 leads → 19 clients → $23K/mo MRR sitting on the table.

Critical #2 — Attribution is Blind
Booking page strips ALL UTM parameters. 10 of 12 closed deals can't be attributed.

The GHL calendar ?ai= parameter replaces the URL query string, destroying UTMs. Only 1 of 7 campaigns is tagged. Google Ads has zero UTMs. You're spending $50K+/mo on ads with no way to know what's working.

Critical #3 — Churn is Eating Growth
30% annual churn = losing ~6 clients/month. Net growth only ~3 clients/month.

Rise closes ~9 new clients/month but loses ~6. 183 clients stuck in "NEEDS ONBOARDING" at step 1. 48% of churn happens in months 12-24. At 30% churn, Rise must replace $1M/year just to stay flat.

Warning #4 — Creative Bottleneck
Top-volume creative "TT1" is worst performer (3.1% booking, 0 closes, ~$5K/mo spend)

Only 1 creative ("2026-6") has produced tracked closes. No naming convention, no rotation schedule, no performance tracking loop. Single creative producer bottleneck (Kris Lopez).

Warning #5 — Google Ads Dead Zone
49 Google leads in 2026 — zero pipeline movement, zero closes

All 539 historical Google leads stuck in NEW LEAD. No UTMs, no follow-up, no attribution. Either the leads are bad or nobody's working them.

Warning #6 — Team Capacity Gaps
80 of 104 tracked leads are "Unassigned." Caitlin Aguirre at 433 min median response.

Speed-to-lead is great overall (1.4 min median) because auto-workflows fire instantly, but human follow-up is inconsistent. Closed deals get 2.5x more touches (31.8 avg) than non-closed (12.5).

Opportunity #7 — Organic Closes 31x Better
"No Campaign" leads close at 9.4% vs 0.3% for paid campaigns

Organic/referral leads dramatically outperform paid. This suggests either: (a) paid lead quality is low, (b) paid leads aren't getting the same follow-up, or (c) both. A massive leverage point.

💰 The Revenue Bridge — $3M → $6M

Each lever below has been quantified from real Rise data. These aren't guesses — they're projections based on your actual pipeline, churn, and conversion numbers.

LeverMechanismAnnual ImpactConfidence
🔄 Cut Churn 30% → 20%Onboarding v2, client dashboards, 90-day check-ins, retention plays+$600KHigh
📧 Re-Engage 10,608 Stuck Leads4-tier SMS/email campaign, auto-assign round-robin+$405K–$810KMedium
📈 Raise Avg Retainer +$200Tier pricing (Silver/Gold/Platinum), value-based upsells+$480KHigh
🎯 Fix Attribution + Scale WinnersUTM fix, kill TT1, scale 2026-6, 10%+ booking rate+$210KMedium
🤖 AI Creative Pipeline5x output, 15x A/B velocity, $200/mo vs FTE+$80K savedHigh
🔍 Google Ads ReactivationFix tracking, assign leads, test new strategy+$150KLow
🏗️ Onboarding Automation v2Faster activation, reduce early churn, parallel doc gen+$150K savedHigh
Total Addressable Upside +$2.1M–$2.5M

Conservative scenario hits $4.5M. Full execution reaches $5.5M+. Stretch (with Google vertical + referral program): $6M+.

Pipeline Composition — Where Leads Die

Churn Cohort Retention (Quarterly)

Revenue Impact by Lever

Lead Age Distribution (10,608 Stuck)

🗓️ 90-Day Action Plan — Prioritized by Impact

Month 1 — Quick Wins (March 2026)
  • Fix UTM passthrough on booking page — Single biggest attribution fix. Dev task: append UTMs to GHL calendar link via hidden fields or redirect. Impact: 17% → 90%+ closed deal attribution
  • Set up auto-assign round-robin — GHL workflow: new lead → round-robin assign to Caitlin, Katie, Tom. Impact: 10,608 unassigned → zero
  • Kill TT1 creative, scale 2026-6 — Immediate ad spend reallocation. Impact: Save ~$5K/mo, improve booking rate 3%→15%
  • Launch Tier 1 re-engagement — 306 hot leads (<30 days), 6-step SMS sequence. Impact: ~45 bookings, ~8 closes
  • Deploy Onboarding v2 — Auto-generate 8 docs on Jotform submission. Impact: Onboarding time 2 weeks → 3 days
Month 2 — Structural (April 2026)
  • Roll out client dashboards — Need GHL OAuth or per-location PITs. Target: all 203 active clients. Impact: Churn reduction + upsell conversations
  • Launch Tier 2+3 re-engagement — 969 warm + 3,891 cool leads. Staggered to avoid carrier flagging. Impact: ~80 bookings, ~14 closes
  • Implement tier pricing — Silver ($997) / Gold ($1,497) / Platinum ($1,997). Migrate top 50 clients to Gold+. Impact: +$200 avg retainer
  • AI creative pipeline launch — Canva Pro + AI video tools. Kris as creative director, not sole producer. Impact: 5x output
  • 90-day client health check-ins — Automated NPS survey + AM review at 30/60/90 days. Impact: Catch churn signals early
Month 3 — Scale (May 2026)
  • Google Ads vertical pilot — 5-client test with proper UTMs + dedicated follow-up. Impact: Validate channel or kill it
  • Tier 4 cold re-engagement — 5,442 leads, 2-step "we noticed you never connected" sequence. Impact: Even 0.5% = 27 bookings
  • Client referral program — Existing clients get month free for successful referral. Impact: Lowest CAC channel
  • Full analytics dashboard rollout — analytics.risecommand.com with all clients live. Impact: Competitive moat + retention
  • Pipeline hygiene automation — Monthly auto-archive leads >365 days with no activity. Impact: Clean pipeline = accurate forecasting

🏗️ What's Already Built (12 Deliverables, 8 Days)

DeliverableStatusLive At
Daily Sales Tracking Cron✅ RunningCron job (7 AM daily)
Client Reporting Dashboards⏳ 4 clients liverise-dashboards.pages.dev
Cloudflare Website Builder✅ ReadyNeeds Cloudflare token to deploy
Attribution Tracking Analysis✅ Completerise-attribution.pages.dev
Speed-to-Lead Dashboard✅ Liveanalytics.risecommand.com/speed-to-lead
Pipeline Leak Analysis✅ Completerise-pipeline-leak.pages.dev
P&L Model (5 scenarios)✅ Liverise-pnl-model.pages.dev
UTM Audit✅ Completerise-utm-audit.pages.dev
Re-Engagement Campaign Plan✅ Readyrisecommand.com/reengagement.html
Client Churn Analysis✅ Completerise-churn-analysis.pages.dev
Creative Refresh Proposal✅ Readyrise-creative-refresh.pages.dev
Onboarding Automation v2✅ Builtonboarding-automation/ (8 auto-gen docs)
Dashboard Auto-Refresh✅ RunningCron job (6 AM daily)

🚧 Blockers Needing Jacob's Action

Urgent

GHL OAuth App or Per-Location PITs

Unlocks: Dashboard rollout to all 203 clients
Currently have tokens for only 4 clients. Need either a GHL Marketplace OAuth app or individual Private Integration Tokens per sub-account.
Urgent

Fix UTM Passthrough on Booking Page

Unlocks: 90%+ closed deal attribution
The GHL calendar ?ai= parameter replaces the URL query string. Need dev work on the funnel/form to pass UTMs as hidden fields.
Important

Auto-Assign Round Robin in GHL

Unlocks: Re-engagement campaign + zero unassigned leads
Need a GHL workflow that auto-assigns new leads to reps. Prerequisite for the re-engagement campaign launch.
Important

Cloudflare API Token

Unlocks: Client website deployments
Website builder is ready. Need CLOUDFLARE_API_TOKEN env var to deploy via wrangler CLI.

⚡ The Bottom Line

Rise has a lead generation machine that works — 10,000+ leads in the system. The problem isn't getting leads, it's converting and keeping clients.

Three moves change everything:

  1. Assign every lead immediately — Zero leads should sit unassigned. This alone could add 19+ clients from existing pipeline.
  2. Cut churn from 30% to 20% — With client dashboards, better onboarding, and health check-ins. Worth $600K/year.
  3. Fix attribution, scale what works — You can't optimize what you can't measure. One booking page fix unlocks everything.

Conservative execution of this plan: $4.5M. Full execution: $5.5M+. The data supports it.